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Daniel Drezner: "..is 2009 the year that China's government collapses? Or is it
just another year in which there will be a crackdown of a mass
uprising? Because those may be the only two options."
Thomas Crampton
- As the US economy struggles, Americans will find fault with China.
- Another investment banker will "discover" China and burden the world with a badly-written book about his findings.
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3rd and 4th tier cities in China will show surprising resilience in the
face of a slowdown, while residents of SH and BJ complain. Foreign journalists will
quote the complainers, giving an exaggerated sense dissatisfaction.
Davesgonechina
I disagree with Drezner's options. I believe that the economy will worsen with reduced Western consumption and pour salt in the wounds of the education and healthcare systems. These are the governments two biggest failures in reform, and an economic downturn will really put the spotlight on them.
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- Another investment banker will "discover" China and burden the world with a badly-written book about his findings.
- 3rd and 4th tier cities in China will show surprising resilience in the face of a slowdown, while those in SH and BJ complain. Journalists will quote the complainers, giving an exaggerated sense dissatisfaction.
While no changes in the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (全国政协, 全國政協) are to be expected this year, there may well be a gradual evolution and upgrading of the roles of the Central Committee of the Communist Party.
2. Dresner is wrong. Predicting China's collapse is like predicting a major earthquake in California---if you keep saying it long enough, eventually you may be correct, and you might be remembered for it. But the matter of fact is that most of the time you are wrong. If I could just get a dime every time some half-bottled pundit predicts China's collapse, I'll be very rich by now.
3. Building this wiki shows Rebacca Mackinnon's fundamental lack of social science training. The human society is way too complex for any meaningful prediction with current technology. Very few serious and self-respecting social scientist will make predictions about what will happen in China in year xxxx, except for minor issues.
Writing this inane comment show's the writer's fundamental lack of a sense of humor or any sense of fun. The human society is way too boring for any interest when looked at through the soulless eyes of the ground-down academic.
Noli illegitimi carborundum!
The Democrats will agitate for more trade on restrictions on China and a harsher line on the yuan. Tensions will mount as US unemployment rises and as China enacts policies to support an export sector that is shedding jobs. Yes, China will be accused of 'stealing jobs from the US' even as China's own unemployment rises. It's magic.
The 50th anniversary of the Dalai Lama's exile will prompt external protests but intensive internal security will deter mass incidents in the region. Chinese people will blame France and will briefly stop buying pirated LV handbags.
The military parade scheduled for Beijing to celebrate the 60th founding of the PRC will be seen/portrayed as an example of China's rising military might by China hawks. (And it is, in all honesty, a really bad idea from both a public relations and diplomatic perspective.)
North Korea, also turning 60, will try to out-do China's anniversary celebrations. (They may even succeed on a technical basis, but no one outside of North Korea will be paying attention or notice.)
I hope Guest's understanding of geology is better than his understanding of China. When geologists are trotted out to talk about how The Big One is imminent, they mean in geologic time, meaning sometime in the next 100 years. This is why it's best to take an annual prediction with a grain of salt, but to understand that what happens one year may contribute to the event eventually in the long term.