cnpredictions

yoga classes will expand in metros, interest in meditation will peak out of the closet and maybe into a magazine or two .. vegetarian and food-purity interests will increase, more conversations about public smoking .. am i seeing a spiritual renaissance? yes, just the beginning though. it will flourish by 2011 .... it is been there forever will awaken

- As the US economy struggles, Americans will find fault with China.
- Another investment banker will "discover" China and burden the world with a badly-written book about his findings.
- 3rd and 4th tier cities in China will show surprising resilience in the face of a slowdown, while those in SH and BJ complain. Journalists will quote the complainers, giving an exaggerated sense dissatisfaction.

The service economy will continue to grow, including call centers to serve Chinese consumers. The Chinese-supported port at Gwadar at the mouth of the Persian Gulf will be one in a series of factors that encourage Chinese leaders to gradually become more engaged in international politics and multilateral diplomacy.

While no changes in the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (全国政协, 全國政協) are to be expected this year, there may well be a gradual evolution and upgrading of the roles of the Central Committee of the Communist Party.

As more new Chinese labour laws are introduced,more countries will repatriate jobs back for their own people.China's "cheap labour" will become too high for greedy capitalists!

If the production costs rise in China, most capitalists will accept it with a grudge, or move on to other countries like India or Vietnam. Repatriate jobs back for their own people? Never! This world is too poor to hire those fat bastards.

we are on the 60th anniversary, therefore, money will be injected to keep everything close to rosy, avoid the 20th anniversary of TAM 89, and keep with the nice propaganda work on CCTV and satellites (videos of Beijing '08 glory will continue to appear often all over -that money has to be rightfully employed). May be another rocket and space walk, some more talks with Taiwan (probably a bit of this patriotic nostalgia for the masses in bad times is a good sedative) and once in 2010 we are out of the crisis and factories are churning again... but who knows, the turtle backs were not very clear.

1. Thomas Crampton is right that as the US economy struggles, Americans will find fault with China. They will also find more comfort about themselves that they are living in democracy and lamenting that China's lack of democracy.


2. Dresner is wrong. Predicting China's collapse is like predicting a major earthquake in California---if you keep saying it long enough, eventually you may be correct, and you might be remembered for it. But the matter of fact is that most of the time you are wrong. If I could just get a dime every time some half-bottled pundit predicts China's collapse, I'll be very rich by now.


3. Building this wiki shows Rebacca Mackinnon's fundamental lack of social science training. The human society is way too complex for any meaningful prediction with current technology. Very few serious and self-respecting social scientist will make predictions about what will happen in China in year xxxx, except for minor issues.

>>Building this wiki shows Rebacca Mackinnon's fundamental lack of social science training.

Writing this inane comment show's the writer's fundamental lack of a sense of humor or any sense of fun. The human society is way too boring for any interest when looked at through the soulless eyes of the ground-down academic.

Noli illegitimi carborundum!

China will exploit the financial crisis to strengthen ties with globally strategic 'strapped for cash' nations (particularly in Africa) with the usual disregard for what happens to the money or guns they use to buy influence.

Predictions for 2009:


The Democrats will agitate for more trade on restrictions on China and a harsher line on the yuan. Tensions will mount as US unemployment rises and as China enacts policies to support an export sector that is shedding jobs. Yes, China will be accused of 'stealing jobs from the US' even as China's own unemployment rises. It's magic.


The 50th anniversary of the Dalai Lama's exile will prompt external protests but intensive internal security will deter mass incidents in the region. Chinese people will blame France and will briefly stop buying pirated LV handbags.


The military parade scheduled for Beijing to celebrate the 60th founding of the PRC will be seen/portrayed as an example of China's rising military might by China hawks. (And it is, in all honesty, a really bad idea from both a public relations and diplomatic perspective.)


North Korea, also turning 60, will try to out-do China's anniversary celebrations. (They may even succeed on a technical basis, but no one outside of North Korea will be paying attention or notice.)

"Dresner is wrong. Predicting China's collapse is like predicting a major earthquake in California---if you keep saying it long enough, eventually you may be correct, and you might be remembered for it. But the matter of fact is that most of the time you are wrong."

I hope Guest's understanding of geology is better than his understanding of China. When geologists are trotted out to talk about how The Big One is imminent, they mean in geologic time, meaning sometime in the next 100 years. This is why it's best to take an annual prediction with a grain of salt, but to understand that what happens one year may contribute to the event eventually in the long term.