Daniel Drezner: "..is 2009 the year that China's government collapses? Or is it
just another year in which there will be a crackdown of a mass
uprising? Because those may be the only two options."
Thomas Crampton
- As the US economy struggles, Americans will find fault with China.
- Another investment banker will "discover" China and burden the world with a badly-written book about his findings.
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3rd and 4th tier cities in China will show surprising resilience in the
face of a slowdown, while residents of SH and BJ complain. Foreign journalists will
quote the complainers, giving an exaggerated sense dissatisfaction.
Davesgonechina
I disagree with Drezner's options. I believe that the economy will worsen with reduced Western consumption and pour salt in the wounds of the education and healthcare systems. These are the governments two biggest failures in reform, and an economic downturn will really put the spotlight on them.
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